Change Is Coming...Too Fast Or Not Fast Enough?

16/06/2016

barrysays

History tells us that change is inevitable. It’s how we react to change that defines events, leaders, nations. Yet humanity constantly resists it. We see this currently with climate change, population explosion and urbanisation. We are witnessing one of the most dramatic periods of change in world history and facing some of the most important decisions ever to be taken. It seems to me that the most appropriate solutions and ways to move forward are generally quite clear cut, and yet they are rarely followed, particularly in the short term. Change takes time, and gaining consensus to make those changes holds us back from progress.

He who wants to go quickly goes alone. He who wants to go far goes together.

​African Proverb

The ‘bubble’ car, officially called COAS (Car on a Stick) has high visibility and seats four adults. Image: Ross Lovegrove

We know that climate change needs the inevitable move to renewable power sources. We know that information and communication technology (ITC) advances mean behaviour patterns are rapidly shifting. We know that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation will erode traditional jobs and services at a time when the population is ever increasing. We know that these things are happening quickly, very quickly. We could and perhaps should be radically and urgently aligning our lifestyles and redesigning our cities based on these inevitabilities. But are we? No, not really. The business as usual model continues to prevail, particularly in terms of how we are continuing to plan and shape our cities.

Changes seem only acceptable in small incremental steps that allow time for people and markets to adjust. Why should that be? Rosabeth Moss Kanter of the Harvard Business School suggests ten reasons people resist change.[1] They include loss of control, uncertainty about possible surprises, insecurity through change, and the potential for unknown ripple effects.

​"Every social transformation requires ... the bravery of Churchill, the vision of JFK, the determination of Reagan, the rare ability to galvanize a country or the world to take the right step for a greater cause. We are standing on the verge of such an event."

​Shai Agassi, founder of Better Place
​

Artificial Intelligence will be responsible for the next industrial revolution, experts in the field have claimed. Image: theinquirer.net

Sometimes large scale changes require a catalyst to force them through. Writer Matt Hardigree suggests three possible ways to get change: Technological, Political and Catastrophic. 

Technological: We have come to expect sudden breakthroughs in technology that fundamentally alters the way the world works.

​Political: a transformative figure with the right ideas, at the right time, who can master the political power will be necessary to fundamentally alter our built environment.
​
Catastrophic: Chicago needed a fire to rebuild. San Francisco needed a fire and an earthquake. Nature sometimes provides the worst, yet most effective catalyst. An event that destroys much of our infrastructure, and displaces tens of thousands of people needs urgent action.

​
"Starting an electric car company would have to be one of the dumbest things you could do to make money."
 
Elon Musk, founder of TESLER 

The First Illustrations of H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds: The Surreal & Horrifying Art of Henrique Alvim Corrêa (1906). Image: openculture.com

I consider that we are on the verge of a “triple whammy” of change where all three of these catalysts will come into play together. Not only are we witnessing extraordinary technological revolution but the world economy is in turbulent mood at a time when religious and social instability prevail. The increasing prevalence of natural disaster and social displacement through climate change are manifest.

​As such we may be at a tipping point, where rapid change might now be confidently anticipated, led by necessity and inspired by technology. How might our city planning and urban spaces be radically transformed to implement the coming changes of tomorrow’s world? The way we have developed cities has been lead by road traffic planning for the last century. I believe the opportunities afforded by requirements for new ways of city living should lead to a revolution in the way we view and shape the public realm.

​Science fiction writers have often provided prescient glimpses of future technologies. From the advanced submarine imagined by Jules Verne in his 1870 novel Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea to the spacecraft described by H.G. Wells in his 1897 novel The War of the Worlds, there are countless examples of science fiction works that have foreshadowed, or even inspired, the development of real technologies.

​With the advent of motion pictures, science fiction writers’ ideas about what the future might look like could also be visually brought to life on screen.

Skylane on Coruscant. Image: starwars.com

A skylane was a level of repulsor lift traffic that allowed airspeeders to move about the city-planet of Coruscant. Crashes were rare, as most vehicles were equipped with auto-navigation systems, allowing them to proceed along pre-programmed routes. However, air taxis had permission to leave the skylanes and take shortcuts throughout Galactic City. Traffic was usually heaviest in the early morning and late afternoon.
​
Starwars.com​

​Here are my 10 visions for a “brave new world”, influenced by writers, designers and scientists of how tomorrow’s streets will appear in the future:

EHANG184 Flying Vehicle. Image: huffingtonpost.co.uk

1. THE SKY’S THE LIMIT!

The opportunities presented by big data and the age of autonomous vehicles to reshape our cities cannot be overstated. We are already familiar with using taxi apps such as Uber and these will soon be moved over to fleets of autonomous vehicle taxis. It’s clearly not a good time to be a taxi driver[2]. Apple just invested $1 billion in Chinese ride-hailing service Didi Chuxing[3]. Autonomous vehicles can be designed to function in ways completely different from traditional motor vehicles, freeing themselves from the traditional “rules of the road” and liberating our streets. Let’s not stop there. Autonomous Aerial Vehicles (AAV) are now on the production line. The Ehang 184 AAV[4] is a low altitude autonomous aerial vehicle being tested in Nevada to put the drone through regulatory approval[5]. It should be possible to free up traffic from the streets using low level, tiered, aerial roads where all the vehicles are talking to each other[6]. Just think of Star Wars and all those skylanes of aerial traffic heading across the backdrop.

Skylane on Coruscant. Image: starwars.com

​2. LAST MILE – PROBLEM SOLVED

The most exciting aspect for me is the prospect of addressing the “holy grail” of urban planning; solving the last mile problem. Public transport is all very well, but the private motor vehicle can deliver you door to door. The problem of getting that last mile from the train or bus stop to your destination has always been problematic, especially when loaded with goods, being physically infirm or simply just avoiding the rain. But who needs their own car when AAVs not only have the ability to drop you at your door but even at your balcony. AAVs could utilise roof spaces, and refuge floors in tall buildings, eventually apartments will even have their own skyports.​

Abu Dhabi police use a drone to resecue a stranded window cleaner. Image: urban drones.com

3. BLACKTOP TO GREENSWARD

The immediate potential from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is their potential to carry out civic duties, particularly emergency response for fire, medical and police. Much of the way streets are developed is in order to service buildings, particularly in the event of fire. Flexible servicing, be it fighting fires or cleaning windows means that emergency vehicle access (EVA) requirements can change, with relaxation on the needs for street vehicle access, freeing up streets and liberating building arrangement. That means more interesting spaces, more greenery and less vehicles. What’s more, with the impending death of the private vehicle in urban areas goes the need for parking spaces. Autonomous vehicles can be employed 24/7 whilst private vehicles are parked for the majority of their lives; an incredibly inefficient use of space and resources. Just think what can be done without all that wasted space.

​In fact no road signs will be necessary, no need for white lines or road rage. Flow efficiencies, particularly at junctions will be massively increased based on automated slot systems, while conflicts with cyclists and pedestrians will fall away. The highway planning handbook can be literally thrown away, along with all the conventional roadway furniture including segregating barriers, kerbs and railings. Truly shared, safe, green streets.

Prototypes of a modular road will soon be tested in Rotterdam, using a strong, corrosion-resistant, recycled aggregate made of ocean waste plastic. Image: VolkerWessels

4. THICK CRUST

To make things even more interesting we can anticipate the advent of digital road surfaces.[7] Thick with possibility, surface markings won't be painted on, they'll be emergent, and will appear and disappear depending on the time, the season, the event. These modular streets will communicate with people and vehicles whilst changing their layouts to give real time and predictive feedback; they might help organize a weekly market or a parade, but they'll also be energy generators, heated to remove snow, compartmentalised to hold cables and be able to hold and disperse rainwater. We can anticipate rationalised, regularised utilisation of ground space laid in modular panels and continuous ducting, enabling ease of installation and maintenance. No more pneumatic drills and burst water pipes.

Artificial urban forest in Jena, Germany. Image: greencitysolutions.de

5. CLEAN AIR – COOL CITY

New ACs will not contribute to localised urban air pollution, whilst less dedicated road space should mean more amenity greenspace leading to passive cooling.  We can expect to see building facades incorporating algae to guzzle carbon dioxide as an energy source,[8] along with artificial trees producing urban oxygen forests. [9] All that smart technology in our cities gets hot, yet nanotechnology research is striving to unleash the potential to cool the electronic processes running our digital streets[10] and keep our cities super cool!

Photovoltaic road surface. Image: ecourbanlab.com

6. STREET CASH

Suddenly the streets are paved with gold. Well at least they can generate cash. We are already seeing solar streets and cycleways being implemented[11] and the buck doesn’t stop there. Micro wind turbines[12] along with kinetic energy equipment[13] are all going to add to the street energy mix. Both vehicles and pedestrians will be able to contribute to the energy grid rather than depleting it. How can we possibly have been wasting all that energy potential for so long? But watch out, the big bucks come with advertising. Smart glass, holograms and  “robo trader” will be able to sell everything to everyone, everywhere!

Rooftop garden and apiary on InterContinental New York Barclay Hotel. Image: Anthony Behar, Sipa Press/AP.

7 . FOOD FOR THOUGHT

All those green streets we have created can be productive. Urban agriculture will be able to thrive in pollution free cities. Allotments will be back in season and guerilla gardening become mainstream. All sorts of underutilised spaces can be given over to commercial or recreational use, aided by “robo” gardener living in his high tech closh.​

Sponge city concept. Image: nlurbansolutions.com

8. WATER IS THE NEW GOLD

The realisation that water is a valuable resource is finally sinking in. Away go all those storm drains and instead rainwater is slowed, collected and stored back within the soil for use where it falls. Our new cities use sustainable urban drainage planning to become super sponges, developed to avoid flash floods and utilise street spaces with seasonal pools for cooling. New street designs can incorporate open and closed water storage tanks for a variety of uses including irrigating those urban agricultural plots, assisting “robo cleaner” with washing the streets and the flushing of smart toilets.

Urban hygiene system of autonomous robots, embedded in an Ambient Intelligence infrastructure. Image: dustbot.org

9.  WASTE NOT WANT NOT

With pressure on landfill and resource depletion mounting, recycling will thrive. Habits of excess and the throwaway society will have to change, aided by incentives and penalties. Tomorrow’s packaging will all need to be coded, readable, separable and recyclable, but if you are going to have to throw something away it will disappear into an underground automated waste system and be transported along pipelines or conveyors to a waste separation system where AI robotics will handle what comes.[14] Of course even human waste is a resource, and so expect automatedly, “pay per pee”, automatic self cleansing smart card operated toilets to adorn our new streets, with the “deposits” being recycled into energy pellets or even drinking water.

Imagine a world where you could just use your thoughts to control your environment. Image shutterstock

10. NO ESCAPE

Much as you find today on your phone, smart technology will follow you around with big data tracking your movements to ensure that you exist in an augmented reality where your surroundings are continually adapted to your preferences, including destination choices, advertising you are seeing and people who are interacting with you. The streets become both your playground and your prison, where big brother is automatically logging every move! You can be billed by the local taxman based on the actual time you spend in each city. And cash won’t exist, just digital credit exchanges made with the blink of an eye!

Barry Wilson is a Landscape Architect, urbanist and university lecturer. His practice, Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, has been tackling urbanisation issues in Hong Kong and China for over 20 years. (www.initiatives.com.hk). ​

2016/03/30 
Hong Kong Committed to Lagging Behind

2016/01/20 
Where Are All the Boomerangs?
Related: Protecting Heritage Needs Education and Equity with Economics

2015/12/02
Urban Villages – Problems or Solutions
Related: Urban Villages Salon

2015/11/05
Visions of Our Future Crystallising Rapidly ​
Related: WorldGBC Congress 2015 Hong Kong

Automated taxis "Jonnycab" introduced in the film Total Recall. Image: gearheads.org

While it would be nearly impossible to cite all the future technologies depicted in movies over the hundred-plus years that the medium has existed, there have been several notable science fiction films that have provided particularly accurate predictions of technologies before they were invented.

The urban forms of Metropolis remain stunning examples of futuristic envisioning of the city. Image: 3ammagazine.com

Metropolis (1927)
Technology: Android
Director Fritz Lang’s seminal science fiction film features one of the earliest movie portrayals of a robot that is made to look like a human.

Woman in the Moon (1929)
Technology: Space Travel
Man didn't land on the moon until 1969, but 40 years prior, Fritz Lang’s silent vision showed what it might be like. There was a multi-stage rocket launch, media frenzy at the launch event, and even a countdown.

The Jetsons (1962)
Technology: Robot Vacuum Cleaner
The Jetsons were way ahead of their time. Whilst we are not yet quite commuting to work in flying cars, we are on the cusp. The several technologies conceived included video chat, tanning beds, a TeleViewer (similar to an iPad), and of course automated vacuum machines.

The pioneer of the mobile phone. Star Trek Communicator. Image: CBS via Getty

Star Trek (1966)
Technology: Smartphones/PDAs
When it comes to predicting future technologies, it can be argued that the Star Trek franchise tops all others. Some of the currently existing technologies predicted by the franchise include videophone communications, 3-D printers (replicators), and computer speech recognition. However, perhaps the most iconic Star Trek technology that later became a reality is the handheld communicator. Martin Cooper, the inventor of the first cell phone, cited the communicators depicted in the Star Trek universe as an inspiration for his invention. The “flip phone” design that was used by various mobile phone makers appears to be directly inspired by Star Trek’s iconic devices.

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
Technology: Tablet Computing
Stanley Kubrick's vision of our modern day world is eerily accurate on so many accounts. The video phone, space tourism, tablet computing, and personal TVs embedded into airplane seats all appeared in the film. However it’s the iconic HAL 9000 robot and its artificial intelligence that stands out.

Sleeper (1973)
Technology: Robot Assisted Surgery
Woody Allen’s futuristic comedy attempts to take a nostalgic look at the future. In one scene, a talking computer offers analysis and suggestions during surgery.

Blade Runner (1982)
Technology: Digital Billboards
A jaunt through the cityscape in Blade Runner reveals a world in which digital billboards are fairly ubiquitous. The particular overtones of today’s dense Asian cities in Japan, Korea and increasingly China are unmistakeable.

WarGames (1983)
Technology: War Driving
A decade before the advent of the internet, WarGames offered up a glimpse of what to beware of in a connected world, including general hacking, cyber warfare, and war dialing (using a modem to scan a list of telephone numbers), which would later lead to wardriving (driving around looking for Wi-Fi networks). WarGames is also the first movie to use the term "firewall."

Electric Dreams (1984)
Technology: Home Automation
It's man versus machine during the dawn of the PC era when hardly anyone knew anything about computers. Prescient insights included a PC taking over the home and control of the lights, doors and locks.

Short Circuit (1986)
Technology: Military robot.
Today, the use of robots by the military for reconnaissance and attack purposes is well established. The best known military robots may be unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) however, there are also military robots that use a continuous track-based design that looks a lot like Johnny Five’s.

Back to the Future Part II (1989)
Technology: Wearable Computing
The franchise got some things right and many things wrong, but one that falls into the former category is wearable computing. The glasses you see the McFly family donning at the dinner table serve as a precursor to Google Glass and even the Oculus Rift, which themselves are still both in their infancy.

Total Recall (1990)
Technology: Driverless car
The film is a sci-fi exploration of virtual reality, but one scene that sticks out involves self-driving taxis known as Johnny Cabs. Autonomous cars are here to stay and about to become mainstream.

Gattaca (1997)
Technology: Home Genetic Testing
The corporate world hasn't yet quite descended to DNA tests in place of job interviews, nor does a birthing doctor give you a rundown of all the ailments your newborn baby is likely to suffer, along with precise age expectancy, but it can’t be far away. You can, today, pick up home DNA test (23andme.com) to get an outlook on your genetic health risks.

Minority Report. Image: CBS via Getty

​Minority Report (2002)
Technology: Gesture-based user interface
The film accurately predicted gesture-based user interfaces long before touchscreens and motion-sensing inputs became common. The swipe and pinch-to-zoom motions are essentially the same gestures used to operate touchscreens today.
Director Steven Spielberg tells that like Stanley Kubrick did for 2001: A Space Odyssey, he “consulted with industrial designers, futurists and advertising people, to try to visualize what the future world would look like.”

​Rosabeth Moss Kanter of the Harvard Business School suggests 10 Reasons people resist change:

Loss of control.
Change interferes with autonomy and can make people feel that they’ve lost control over their territory. It’s not just political, as in who has the power. Our sense of self-determination is often the first thing to go when faced with a potential change coming from someone else.

Excess uncertainty.
If change feels like walking off a cliff blindfolded, then people will reject it. People will often prefer to remain mired in misery than to head toward an unknown. As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know.”

Surprise, surprise!
Decisions imposed on people suddenly, with no time to get used to the idea or prepare for the consequences, are generally resisted. It’s always easier to say No than to say Yes.

Everything seems different.
Change is meant to bring something different, but how different? We are creatures of habit. Routines become automatic, but change jolts us into consciousness, sometimes in uncomfortable ways. Too many differences can be distracting or confusing.

Loss of face.
By definition, change is a departure from the past. Those people associated with the last version — the one that didn’t work, or the one that’s being superseded — are likely to be defensive about it. When change involves a big shift of strategic direction, the people responsible for the previous direction dread the perception that they must have been wrong.

Concerns about competence.
Can I do it? Change is resisted when it makes people feel stupid. They might express skepticism about whether the new software version will work or whether digital journalism is really an improvement, but down deep they are worried that their skills will be obsolete.

More work.
Here is a universal challenge. Change is indeed more work. Those closest to the change in terms of designing and testing it are often overloaded, in part because of the inevitable unanticipated glitches in the middle of change, per “Kanter’s Law” that “everything can look like a failure in the middle.”

Ripple effects.
Like tossing a pebble into a pond, change creates ripples, reaching distant spots in ever-widening circles. The ripples disrupt other departments, important customers, people well outside the venture or neighborhood, and they start to push back, rebelling against changes they had nothing to do with that interfere with their own activities.

Past resentments.
The ghosts of the past are always lying in wait to haunt us. As long as everything is steady state, they remain out of sight. But the minute you need cooperation for something new or different, the ghosts spring into action. Old wounds reopen, historic resentments are remembered — sometimes going back many generations.
Sometimes the threat is real. Now we get to true pain and politics. Change is resisted because it can hurt. When new technologies displace old ones, jobs can be lost; prices can be cut; investments can be wiped out.

Sometimes the threat is real. 
​Now we get to true pain and politics. Change is resisted because it can hurt. When new technologies displace old ones, jobs can be lost; prices can be cut; investments can be wiped out. The best thing leaders can do when the changes they seek pose significant threat is to be honest, transparent, fast, and fair. For example, one big layoff with strong transition assistance is better than successive waves of cuts.

Reference:

​[1] https://hbr.org/2012/09/ten-reasons-people-resist-chang
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/davehillblog/2015/dec/30/london-taxi-trade-the-knowledge-the-conservatives-and-the-future
[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-china-idUSKCN0Y404W
[4] http://www.ehang.com/ehang184
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/08/worlds-first-passenger-drone-testing-ehang-nevada
[6] http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/22/mit-creates-a-control-algorithm-for-drone-swarms/
[7] http://www.solarroadways.com/
[8] http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/will-buildings-future-be-cloaked-algae-180955396/?no-ist
[9] http://www.scmp.com/native/tech/topics/premier-living/article/1934102/hi-tech-installations-aim-clear-smog-hong-kong-and
[10] https://www.forumforthefuture.org/greenfutures/articles/nanotech-cooling-panel-cuts-need-air-con
[11] http://ecourbanlab.com/photovoltaic-road-surface-1000-world/
[12] https://jlmenergyinc.com/blog/2015/10/01/outside-the-box-renewable-energy-microturbines/
[13] http://kinergypower.com/
[14] https://waste-management-world.com/a/the-future-of-waste-collection-underground-automated-waste-conveying-systems