Visions of Our Future Crystallising Rapidly ​

05/11/2015

Related: WorldGBC Congress 2015 Hong Kong

barrysays

The World Green Building Council (WGBC) Congress 2015 was held in Hong Kong last week. With the heat turned up on climate change, population explosion and resource depletion I came away for the first time in a while feeling hopeful for the future. 

It appears finally that the talking is done and action is manifest. With the essential need for massive lifestyle change being undeniable both for the business and political cases, it now seems real and meaningful targets are being created by governments that will facilitate a rapid change in world development direction. The newly adopted UN 2015 Sustainability Goals put forward concrete and ambitious targets for year 2030 that will form the backbone of the climate change summit taking place in Paris in December. The technological solutions have existed for some time to use less energy, move to renewable resources and create more liveable cities. It’s the non-technical barriers that have particularly hampered change; lack of awareness of solutions, capacity of society to adapt, non aligned financial structures and political inertia. The Hong Kong conference was able to showcase that it’s these very barriers that have become the battleground for problem solving and that solutions are not necessarily that far away.     
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New-urbanisation

And it is China that could be driving change faster than anywhere. Dr Qiu Baoxing, former Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) outlined how China had been focusing on raising population awareness about sustainability and explaining how people could benefit financially and in health terms from changes in behaviour conditioning. The near vision is focused on the use of big data analysis to allow people to start to shape and adapt their environments through the use of app based software, reducing water and energy use themselves using a smartphone. Rapid technology solutions are being embraced with the understanding that small improvements on a massive scale will make a significant difference. Support for such technology, allowing flexible and individual choice, will be at the forefront of government energy and policy. Meanwhile the recently announced Central Government Policy Document “China’s New Urbanisation Plan 2014-2020” has provided a renewed focus and approach on managing low carbon growth in Chinese cities so that urbanisation and economic growth are integrated in national policy. At the Hong Kong conference, Dr Stanley Yip of the Centre of Urban Planning & Design, Peking University outlined how China has identified that new urbanisation needs to be de-carbonised with statutory goals of Low or Zero emissions soon coming into play. Individual cities will be required to adopt and enforce their own mandatory targets, with Shanghai likely to be the first of these. China has indeed committed to the peaking of carbon emissions by 2030, and to meet this target, needs to immediately adopt a two-pronged approach of reduced carbon intensity along with a significant switch to more renewables. According to government research, economic growth above 5.3% p.a. will make such a target unattainable. As such a slowdown in the Chinese economy under the “new normal” is both desirable and essential.

In 2009 under Mayor Gregor Robertson’s leadership, the city launched an ambitious programme to become the Greenest City on Earth by year 2020. / Image: vancouver.ca

It is clear that whilst national policy and meeting stringent emissions targets will be fundamental to development change; it is the cities themselves that are going to be at the rockface of implementation. And change can in fact be brought about rapidly; inspiration comes from Vancouver. In 2009 under Mayor Gregor Robertson’s leadership, the city launched an ambitious programme to become the Greenest City on Earth by year 2020. Deputy Mayor Andrea Reimer shared an impassioned outline of how the city has subsequently posted impressive results across ten broad environmental policy areas. Green house gas emissions, water use and waste have been cut significantly whilst comprehensive new strategies for urban food, urban forest management, green buildings and green transportation are being implemented. At the commencement of the programme Vancouver didn’t have a global rank; by 2014 the city was ranked the fourth Greenest City on Earth. Building on this success, it now targets that 100% of energy used will be from renewable sources by 2050. Most interestingly Ms Reimer suggests that success has primarily been as a result of citizen engagement. More than 35,000 residents and 180 local organisations have been involved in actually writing the plan and overseeing the progress on targets and goals. It is the citizens of the city who have driven the process of implementing the kind of life choices and tradeoffs that they wish to make for the future and these have been of far greater reach and deeper impact than anything that government could have achieved alone. This is meaningful community consultation, unlike anything we witness in Hong Kong.
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Source: BWPI

The last few years have seen the green business market change fundamentally and it is the market that shall ultimately shape decision making most quickly. Mr Sean Kidney, CEO of the Climate Bonds Initiative, suggested how use of the term “green” is most likely just temporary and that soon requirements for “green” will be business as usual. A “green building” will just be a “building”, in the same way as a “colour TV” is now just a “TV”. Green will become the new standard. Costs of production are falling rapidly as green product use is scaled up. As of this year, solar power has become generally accepted to be cheaper than conventional goal/gas and this disparity is expected to widen so that soon renewables will be the energy of choice on a purely cost basis. Up until now certification products and green awards have been essential in promoting both the business case and health benefits of sustainable development in the face of perceived higher costs. Such tools are potentially likely to become unnecessary as real-time evaluation now starts to take hold in the market and the consumer will be taking control of monitoring the actual quality performance of their indoor environments, as suggested by Dr Qiu. We can already daily measure the outside pollution in our cities and through phone apps, we shall increasingly start to monitor the energy and health aspects of the buildings we occupy in order to measure optimum light, CO2, particulate and VOC levels. It is unfathomable that we spend so much time indoors yet do so little to improve the health and wellness aspects of the places in which we stay. Specific conditions integrated into the architecture and design of indoor spaces can achieve improved human learning and productivity. The healthy environment can lead to improved employee attraction and retention and in schools can directly affect overall achievement and exam results. Healthy buildings don’t cost more to build, they just need more availability of information and monitoring that will be in our own hands. Such technology is not a future dream and is already in the marketplace. The market will react accordingly and buildings will become more healthy, whilst reducing energy use and promoting sustainable behaviour.

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Mr Sundaresan Raghupathy, Executive Director of the Confederation of Indian Industry. / Image: BWPI

For some time we have known that the technology is out there to improve our world but not necessarily the political or business will. I feel we may have reached a turning point here. As the main urbanising regions, Asia and Africa will have a huge part to play. Affordable housing is an essential component but one that needs to be market driven as well and government supported. Green building can be essentially very low cost and according to Mr Sundaresan Raghupathy, Executive Director of the Confederation of Indian Industry, the building sector has embraced sustainable design and construction practices in the past decade, so much so that the green building movement is leading the way in the addressing low cost housing strategies. In India the incremental cost in green affordable housing has decreased to less than 2% and the Indian Green Building Council (IGBC) in partnership with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation (MOHUPA) is working to ensure that the cost of green affordable homes is equal or less than that of a conventional home within the next 5 years. Such green solutions are predominantly low-tech, and are often based on traditional local building techniques coupled with contemporary knowledge application which is transferable worldwide.    ​
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Source：Prof. Ray Wills

The past experience of markets is used as a gauge to inform what to expect when new technologies arrive. How quickly that disruptive technology took over and consumers adapted their behaviour is a key to understanding the changing world today. However what we are witnessing in presently is technological change on an unprecedented scale. The adoption of smarter technologies including automation, robotics, cleantech and 3D printing are being adopted in homes, businesses and industry worldwide, connected through social media and smart devices including wearables and is changing the way we live and interact much faster than anyone could have imagined. Professor Ray Wills, Managing Director of Future Smart Strategies suggests that recent market forecasts have assumed business as usual or traditional usage patterns, without anticipating shifts to be as fast or disruptive as they continue to be. Through his statistical analysis he also anticipates the acceleration of change to increase exponentially. This implies that the planning of our cities, something generally carried out over several years based on accumulated past data, is hugely out of sync with current and future aspirations of our society and that governments in particular are failing to react, regulate and adapt at the speed necessary to accommodate change. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Hong Kong, where any deviation from the inertia of a BOU approach is considered high risk. Tomorrow’s population is instantly informed about all and any matter, can independently evaluate through social media and ultimately mandate an action or product with transparent and real time reaction. This raises the question of whether government in itself remains based on an old and outmoded model and whether its type, form and role needs to be similarly re-assessed in order to be able to evaluate how it is able to adequately serve the people through the 21st Century.

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2015/9/30
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2015/7/22
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Related: Sustainable Approaches to Rural Development

2015/6/3
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2015/5/12
Road Safety a Key Driver in Enhancing Urban Environments
Related: Making our Road Transport Safer for Children

Last century was command and control, this century is suggest and choose. - Prof. Ray Wills
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United Nations Sustainable Development Goals were adopted in September 2015 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 targets 

Source：www.un.org

GOAL 11 - SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
targets

11.1
By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums

11.2
By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all, improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons

11.3
By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries

11.4
Strengthen efforts to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage

11.5
By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations

11.6
By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management

11.7
By 2030, provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, in particular for women and children, older persons and persons with disabilities

11.a
Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, per-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning

11.b
By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels

11.c
Support least developed countries, including through financial and technical assistance, in building sustainable and resilient buildings utilizing local materials​